Deep Time Paleoclimate Modeling and Natural Resource Exploration:
Status and Future Challenges
Sohl, Linda E.1,
Mark A. Chandler1 (1)
Deep time paleoclimate
studies have been employed to assist in the exploration for natural resources
whose formation is dependent upon specific climatic conditions (e.g.,
petroleum, coal, certain ore deposits, and methane clathrates).
Since the 1980s, numerical climate models have complemented qualitative
studies, providing testable predictions for regions in which the existing
geologic data are sparse. With substantial increases in available computer
power, we have gained the ability to run global climate models (GCMs) with as much as a sixteen-fold increase in spatial
resolution over the earliest models, with more sophisticated methods of
handling climate forcings and feedbacks that result
in better reproduction of past climates. In the relatively near future, high
resolution models and/or coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models will be capable
of resolving subregional-scale features, perhaps even
down to the size of individual oil fields, that are of greatest interest for
petroleum exploration.
However, GCMs
produce output that is only as good as the input they receive – i.e., boundary
conditions derived from geologic data. To produce paleoclimate
simulations at increasingly high resolutions, more detailed inputs are
required: paleogeography and paleotopography,
paleovegetation distribution, and ocean temperature
data from paleoproxies. Given the limitations of the
rock record in assigning such conditions, ensembles of experiments will be
required to provide probabilistic hindcasts. GCM
simulations of deep time climates can be a valuable tool in the resource
exploration toolkit, but only if geologists can provide the necessary inputs
and modelers take advantage of new techniques and technologies.
AAPG Search and Discover Article #90063©2007 AAPG Annual Convention, Long Beach, California